2013년 12월 1일 일요일

About 'portfolio accounting system'|...commitment to fact and reason within both American journalism and the broader political system. Though lying is not foreign to U.S. politics and media, ...







About 'portfolio accounting system'|...commitment to fact and reason within both American journalism and the broader political system. Though lying is not foreign to U.S. politics and media, ...








Tulipmania               -               this               is               the               name               coined               for               the               first               pyramid               investment               scheme               in               history.

In               1634,               tulip               bulbs               were               traded               in               a               special               exchange               in               Amsterdam.

People               used               these               bulbs               as               means               of               exchange               and               value               store.

They               traded               them               and               speculated               in               them.

The               rare               black               tulip               bulbs               were               as               valuable               as               a               big               mansion               house.

The               craze               lasted               four               years               and               it               seemed               that               it               would               last               forever.

But               this               was               not               to               be.
               The               bubble               burst               in               1637.

In               a               matter               of               a               few               days,               the               price               of               tulip               bulbs               was               slashed               by               96%!
               This               specific               pyramid               investment               scheme               was               somewhat               different               from               the               ones               which               were               to               follow               it               in               human               financial               history               elsewhere               in               the               world.

It               had               no               "organizing               committee",               no               identifiable               group               of               movers               and               shakers,               which               controlled               and               directed               it.

Also,               no               explicit               promises               were               ever               made               concerning               the               profits               which               the               investors               could               expect               from               participating               in               the               scheme               -               or               even               that               profits               were               forthcoming               to               them.
               Since               then,               pyramid               schemes               have               evolved               into               intricate               psychological               ploys.
               Modern               ones               have               a               few               characteristics               in               common:
               First,               they               involve               ever               growing               numbers               of               people.

They               mushroom               exponentially               into               proportions               that               usually               threaten               the               national               economy               and               the               very               fabric               of               society.

All               of               them               have               grave               political               and               social               implications.
               Hundreds               of               thousands               of               investors               (in               a               population               of               less               than               3.5               million               souls)               were               deeply               enmeshed               in               the               1983               banking               crisis               in               Israel.
               This               was               a               classic               pyramid               scheme:               the               banks               offered               their               own               shares               for               sale,               promising               investors               that               the               price               of               the               shares               will               only               go               up               (sometimes               by               2%               daily).

The               banks               used               depositors'               money,               their               capital,               their               profits               and               money               that               they               borrowed               abroad               to               keep               this               impossible               and               unhealthy               promise.

Everyone               knew               what               was               going               on               and               everyone               was               involved.
               The               Ministers               of               Finance,               the               Governors               of               the               Central               Bank               assisted               the               banks               in               these               criminal               pursuits.

This               specific               pyramid               scheme               -               arguably,               the               longest               in               history               -               lasted               7               years.
               On               one               day               in               October               1983,               ALL               the               banks               in               Israel               collapsed.

The               government               faced               such               civil               unrest               that               it               was               forced               to               compensate               shareholders               through               an               elaborate               share               buyback               plan               which               lasted               9               years.

The               total               indirect               damage               is               hard               to               evaluate,               but               the               direct               damage               amounted               to               6               billion               USD.
               This               specific               incident               highlights               another               important               attribute               of               pyramid               schemes:               investors               are               promised               impossibly               high               yields,               either               by               way               of               profits               or               by               way               of               interest               paid.

Such               yields               cannot               be               derived               from               the               proper               investment               of               the               funds               -               so,               the               organizers               resort               to               dirty               tricks.
               They               use               new               money,               invested               by               new               investors               -               to               pay               off               the               old               investors.
               The               religion               of               Islam               forbids               lenders               to               charge               interest               on               the               credits               that               they               provide.

This               prohibition               is               problematic               in               modern               day               life               and               could               bring               modern               finance               to               a               complete               halt.
               It               was               against               this               backdrop,               that               a               few               entrepreneurs               and               religious               figures               in               Egypt               and               in               Pakistan               established               what               they               called:               "Islamic               banks".

These               banks               refrained               from               either               paying               interest               to               depositors               -               or               from               charging               their               clients               interest               on               the               loans               that               they               doled               out.

Instead,               they               have               made               their               depositors               partners               in               fictitious               profits               -               and               have               charged               their               clients               for               fictitious               losses.

All               would               have               been               well               had               the               Islamic               banks               stuck               to               healthier               business               practices.
               But               they               offer               impossibly               high               "profits"               and               ended               the               way               every               pyramid               ends:               they               collapsed               and               dragged               economies               and               political               establishments               with               them.
               The               latest               example               of               the               price               paid               by               whole               nations               due               to               failed               pyramid               schemes               is,               of               course,               Albania               1997.

One               third               of               the               population               was               heavily               involved               in               a               series               of               heavily               leveraged               investment               plans               which               collapsed               almost               simultaneously.

Inept               political               and               financial               crisis               management               led               Albania               to               the               verge               of               disintegration               into               civil               war.
               But               why               must               pyramid               schemes               fail?

Why               can't               they               continue               forever,               riding               on               the               back               of               new               money               and               keeping               every               investor               happy,               new               and               old?
               The               reason               is               that               the               number               of               new               investors               -               and,               therefore,               the               amount               of               new               money               available               to               the               pyramid's               organizers               -               is               limited.

There               are               just               so               many               risk               takers.

The               day               of               judgement               is               heralded               by               an               ominous               mismatch               between               overblown               obligations               and               the               trickling               down               of               new               money.

When               there               is               no               more               money               available               to               pay               off               the               old               investors,               panic               ensues.

Everyone               wants               to               draw               money               at               the               same               time.

This,               evidently,               is               never               possible               -               some               of               the               money               is               usually               invested               in               real               estate               or               was               provided               as               a               loan.

Even               the               most               stable               and               healthiest               financial               institutions               never               put               aside               more               than               10%               of               the               money               deposited               with               them.
               Thus,               pyramids               are               doomed               to               collapse.
               But,               then,               most               of               the               investors               in               pyramids               know               that               pyramids               are               scams,               not               schemes.

They               stand               warned               by               the               collapse               of               other               pyramid               schemes,               sometimes               in               the               same               place               and               at               the               same               time.

Still,               they               are               attracted               again               and               again               as               butterflies               are               to               the               fire               and               with               the               same               results.
               The               reason               is               as               old               as               human               psychology:               greed,               avarice.

The               organizers               promise               the               investors               two               things:
               That               they               could               draw               their               money               anytime               that               they               want               to,               and                              
               That               in               the               meantime,               they               will               be               able               to               continue               to               receive               high               returns               on               their               money.


People               know               that               this               is               highly               improbable               and               that               the               likelihood               that               they               will               lose               all               or               part               of               their               money               grows               with               time.

But               they               convince               themselves               that               the               high               profits               or               interest               payments               that               they               will               be               able               to               collect               before               the               pyramid               collapses               -               will               more               than               amply               compensate               them               for               the               loss               of               their               money.

Some               of               them,               hope               to               succeed               in               drawing               the               money               before               the               imminent               collapse,               based               on               "warning               signs".

In               other               words,               the               investors               believe               that               they               can               outwit               the               organizers               of               the               pyramid.

The               investors               collaborate               with               the               organizers               on               the               psychological               level:               cheated               and               deceiver               engage               in               a               delicate               ballet               leading               to               their               mutual               downfall.

This               is               undeniably               the               most               dangerous               of               all               types               of               financial               scandals.

It               insidiously               pervades               the               very               fabric               of               human               interactions.

It               distorts               economic               decisions               and               it               ends               in               misery               on               a               national               scale.

It               is               the               scourge               of               societies               in               transition.
               The               second               type               of               financial               scandals               is               normally               connected               to               the               laundering               of               money               generated               in               the               "black               economy",               namely:               the               income               not               reported               to               the               tax               authorities.

Such               capital               passes               through               banking               channels,               changes               ownership               a               few               times,               so               that               its               track               is               covered               and               the               identities               of               the               owners               of               the               money               are               concealed.

Money               generated               by               drug               dealings,               illicit               arm               trade               and               the               less               exotic               form               of               tax               evasion               is               thus               "laundered".
               The               financial               institutions               which               participate               in               laundering               operations,               maintain               double               accounting               books.

One               book               is               for               the               purposes               of               the               official               authorities.

Those               agencies               and               authorities               that               deal               with               taxation,               bank               supervision,               deposit               insurance               and               financial               liquidity               are               given               access               to               this               set               of               "engineered"               books.

The               true               record               is               kept               hidden               in               another               set               of               books.

These               accounts               reflect               the               real               situation               of               the               financial               institution:               who               deposited               how               much,               when               and               under               which               conditions               -               and               who               borrowed               what,               when               and               under               which               conditions.
               This               double               standard               blurs               the               true               situation               of               the               institution               to               the               point               of               no               return.

Even               the               owners               of               the               institution               begin               to               lose               track               of               its               activities               and               misapprehend               its               real               standing.
               Is               it               stable?

Is               it               liquid?

Is               the               asset               portfolio               diversified               enough?

No               one               knows.

The               fog               enshrouds               even               those               who               created               it               in               the               first               place.

No               proper               financial               control               and               audit               is               possible               under               such               circumstances.
               Less               scrupulous               members               of               the               management               and               the               staff               of               such               financial               bodies               usually               take               advantage               of               the               situation.

Embezzlements               are               very               widespread,               abuse               of               authority,               misuse               or               misplacement               of               funds.

Where               no               light               shines,               a               lot               of               creepy               creatures               tend               to               develop.
               The               most               famous               -               and               biggest               -               financial               scandal               of               this               type               in               human               history               was               the               collapse               of               the               Bank               for               Credit               and               Commerce               International               LTD.

(BCCI)               in               London               in               1991.

For               almost               a               decade,               the               management               and               employees               of               this               shady               bank               engaged               in               stealing               and               misappropriating               10               billion               (!!!)               USD.

The               supervision               department               of               the               Bank               of               England,               under               whose               scrutinizing               eyes               this               bank               was               supposed               to               have               been               -               was               proven               to               be               impotent               and               incompetent.

The               owners               of               the               bank               -               some               Arab               Sheikhs               -               had               to               invest               billions               of               dollars               in               compensating               its               depositors.
               The               combination               of               black               money,               shoddy               financial               controls,               shady               bank               accounts               and               shredded               documents               proves               to               be               quite               elusive.

It               is               impossible               to               evaluate               the               total               damage               in               such               cases.
               The               third               type               is               the               most               elusive,               the               hardest               to               discover.

It               is               very               common               and               scandal               may               erupt               -               or               never               occur,               depending               on               chance,               cash               flows               and               the               intellects               of               those               involved.
               Financial               institutions               are               subject               to               political               pressures,               forcing               them               to               give               credits               to               the               unworthy               -               or               to               forgo               diversification               (to               give               too               much               credit               to               a               single               borrower).

Only               lately               in               South               Korea,               such               politically               motivated               loans               were               discovered               to               have               been               given               to               the               failing               Hanbo               conglomerate               by               virtually               every               bank               in               the               country.

The               same               may               safely               be               said               about               banks               in               Japan               and               almost               everywhere               else.

Very               few               banks               would               dare               to               refuse               the               Finance               Minister's               cronies,               for               instance.
               Some               banks               would               subject               the               review               of               credit               applications               to               social               considerations.

They               would               lend               to               certain               sectors               of               the               economy,               regardless               of               their               financial               viability.

They               would               lend               to               the               needy,               to               the               affluent,               to               urban               renewal               programs,               to               small               businesses               -               and               all               in               the               name               of               social               causes               which,               however               justified               -               cannot               justify               giving               loans.
               This               is               a               private               case               in               a               more               widespread               phenomenon:               the               assets               (=loan               portfolios)               of               many               a               financial               institution               are               not               diversified               enough.

Their               loans               are               concentrated               in               a               single               sector               of               the               economy               (agriculture,               industry,               construction),               in               a               given               country,               or               geographical               region.

Such               exposure               is               detrimental               to               the               financial               health               of               the               lending               institution.

Economic               trends               tend               to               develop               in               unison               in               the               same               sector,               country,               or               region.

When               real               estate               in               the               West               Coast               of               the               USA               plummets               -               it               does               so               indiscriminately.

A               bank               whose               total               portfolio               is               composed               of               mortgages               to               West               Coast               Realtors,               would               be               demolished.
               In               1982,               Mexico               defaulted               on               the               interest               payments               of               its               international               debts.

Its               arrears               grew               enormously               and               threatened               the               stability               of               the               entire               Western               financial               system.

USA               banks               -               which               were               the               most               exposed               to               the               Latin               American               debt               crisis               -               had               to               foot               the               bulk               of               the               bill               which               amounted               to               tens               of               billions               of               USD.

They               had               almost               all               their               capital               tied               up               in               loans               to               Latin               American               countries.

Financial               institutions               bow               to               fads               and               fashions.

They               are               amenable               to               "lending               trends"               and               display               a               herd-like               mentality.

They               tend               to               concentrate               their               assets               where               they               believe               that               they               could               get               the               highest               yields               in               the               shortest               possible               periods               of               time.

In               this               sense,               they               are               not               very               different               from               investors               in               pyramid               investment               schemes.
               Financial               mismanagement               can               also               be               the               result               of               lax               or               flawed               financial               controls.

The               internal               audit               department               in               every               financing               institution               -               and               the               external               audit               exercised               by               the               appropriate               supervision               authorities               are               responsible               to               counter               the               natural               human               propensity               for               gambling.

The               must               help               the               financial               organization               re-orient               itself               in               accordance               with               objective               and               objectively               analysed               data.

If               they               fail               to               do               this               -               the               financial               institution               would               tend               to               behave               like               a               ship               without               navigation               tools.

Financial               audit               regulations               (the               most               famous               of               which               are               the               American               FASBs)               trail               way               behind               the               development               of               the               modern               financial               marketplace.

Still,               their               judicious               and               careful               implementation               could               be               of               invaluable               assistance               in               steering               away               from               financial               scandals.
               Taking               human               psychology               into               account               -               coupled               with               the               complexity               of               the               modern               world               of               finances               -               it               is               nothing               less               than               a               miracle               that               financial               scandals               are               as               few               and               far               between               as               they               are.






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